Tuesday, July 23, 2013

News Roundup

...for those times when even a blog post can't be written...



Thursday, July 11, 2013

Egypt Mini-Update: Tacit US Support

It's no question that the United States was never a huge fan of Mohammed Morsi and his relationship to the Muslim Brotherhood. There was always an underlying fear within government policy circles and analysts alike that Morsi's rule was not aboveboard and was growing less and less democratic, both in the way it was conducted and the way it was founded. In a sense, it was felt that Morsi was given a chance, and then blew it.

It is surprising, however, that the United States may have bankrolled some anti-government organizations in Egypt. It almost seems as if the US is funding revolution by trial and error. However, it's important to note that this investigation has been sharply criticized. The channels of US funding have nearly always been a mystery.

More telling is the story of the F-16s. In 2012, the US agreed on donating F-16s to Egypt as part of an aid package. That's right - not a typo - donating and aid package and F-16s. Some in Congress sought to derail the delivery, but that attempt failed. And now, the US is ready to deliver the first of these fighter jets, amid a military coup, growing unrest, and another revolution. What could be more timely?

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Egypt: Of Protests and Ultimatums

Slightly over a year ago, Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi won Egypt's first post-revolution presidential election.  Almost 11 months ago, Morsi consolidated power with a power move that questioned whether his nascent rule would last.  5 months ago, regime opponents marched in the streets to express disappointment with Morsi's rule to date.

This past Sunday, protesters took to the streets once more to call for Morsi's resignation.  Seven individuals died protest-related clashes and violence, while scores more were wounded.  The Egyptian military then upped the ante yesterday by issuing Morsi a 48-hour ultimatum to get the situation under control; Morsi has thus far refused the military's demands.  An excellent take on the entire situation, from the streets of Cairo, can be found here.

Put succinctly, nobody is quite sure what Egypt will look like by the end of this week.  Whatever emerges out of Egypt, however, one thing is near-certain: this will be the year of missed opportunities and regrets, on all sides.  Morsi, for example, issued an edict in November 2012, shielding his decisions from court review until the passage of a new constitution -- a move many perceived as illegitimate and power-grabbing.  The opposition, in turn, walked out of the constitution-drafting assembly, only to next complain about the lack of their inclusion.  Soon thereafter, the opposition showed staggering ineptitude and indecisiveness, waiting until the week before the constitutional referendum to decide whether it would even participate in the referendum. The military has largely stayed on the sidelines -- that is, of course, until yesterday's ultimatum.  From Morsi's inability to grasp the scope of the populace's discontent to the opposition's ineffectual attempts at political process in general, the common thread throughout Egypt is misunderstanding and miscommunication.  One can only hope that these are growing pains, rather than a hint of descent into turmoil.

Recommended Reading: Airline Hijackings

Just came across this article (which is really an exerpt from a book) and wanted to share: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/06/love-and-terror-in-the-golden-age-of-hijacking.

The article (and book) goes into detail about how the US worked to stem the wave of hijackings in the late 1960's and early 1970's. A fairly interesting read about how one problem was addressed in the beginning.

Monday, June 17, 2013

A Firm Stance by the Military


The army has a bit of a problem in relations between male and female soldiers. It isn't the US army, which has its own share of problems, it's the Australian army. And the line they've taken, from the top down, is very firm. If you haven't had a chance to watch this short address, it is recommended you do. Then imagine how a similar speech could play out in the US.

Pakistan's Quagmire an International Concern

Another day, another disquieting incident in Pakistan, home of possibly the world's most dangerous nuclear weapons program. Militants attacked a bus of students from a women's university, and then proceeded to attack the hospital where survivors were being treated. Although this attack garnered little attention outside of minor news blurbs, it included all the facets that Western nations are concerned about: homegrown terrorism, suicide bombers, a coordinated attack, and significant civilian casualties. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a group with links to al-Qaeda.

As with each attack, international concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal surface. Can Pakistan, a country with deep internal divisions, keep itself together? This attack, on the very fundamental elements of reform Pakistan has struggled with - women's rights - comes on the heels of and as a test to the newly elected government of Nawaz Sharif.

Sharif, a political mainstay of Pakistani politics (this is his third term), has a slew of election promises to uphold. While improving the economy will be quite a challenge on the heels of an accelerating US withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan, ending drone strikes in a country that reels from the majority of American targets will be an even more daunting task. Pakistan has been the center of US operations and there is little evidence to suggest that even as the physical American presence on the ground decreases, the threat of the US military will as well.

Attacks like the one this past week are exactly why. A country with fundamentalist, militant opposition, an active military, and nuclear weapons, is a dangerous mix. And concerns nations far removed from the subcontinental neighborhood. It wouldn't be such bad idea if these stories made more than a dent in the international news blotter.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

UN good at counting; everything else - not so much

A new report from the United Nations (UN) human rights commission indicates that the death toll of the Syrian Civil War stands at nearly 93,000 (Full report here). This is not the first time the UN has released a report on the Syrian death toll. The list only includes those whose names and locations of death are known, thereby all-but guaranteeing that the actual toll of the war is much higher. The UN seems to be great at compiling sources and counting reports of deaths. It is not unimaginable that a team of graduate students could likely do the job (and there are databases of civil war deaths and civilian deaths of wars - example here).

The biggest missing piece is action, or even a call to action. The UN was created to (emphasis ours):

  1. To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;
That is Article 1, Section 1 of the United Nations Charter. That is the first thing that was considered - the basis of all else. It's spirit is not being upheld. That is not to say how many articles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights are being outright ignored - to which, surprisingly, Syria voted in favor of.

In fact, the current UN report concludes most irreverently:

"Examining reported killings is an important step in understanding violence in Syria. But it is only a first step. Further analysis is necessary to answer substantive questions about patterns of violence during this conflict."

It seems to completely gloss over the fact that this is not a historical conflict where historical data is being examined - this is happening now - today. The next step is not to answer "substantive questions about patterns of violence during this conflict." The next step is to use this evidence to encourage a stand against the violence and bringing the conflict to an end.

Previous Illexum posts on Syria:
Foreign Arms in Syria (June 2, 2013)