Russia, for one, is providing advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. Despite initial reports that the missiles had already arrived, Russian sources indicated that the missiles -- part of a 2010 arms deal -- wouldn't arrive in Syria for months. Those same sources said, however, that delivery could be expedited based on conditions on the ground in Syria or changing positions/activities of Western governments.
On Monday, meanwhile, the EU ended its arms embargo on Syria, opening the door for countries like Britain and France to arm the rebels. Canada's foreign minister responded to the news negatively, claiming that more arms flowing into Syria will only cause further bloodshed.
To make matters even worse, news came out Friday that the developer of Russia's MiG fighters will ink a deal to ship at least 10 fighter jets to Syria. While details are sketchy, one can only hope that such a deal does not come to pass.
In short, while there does not appear to be any move toward direct military intervention by foreign governments, all indications seem to point to a weapons influx in the near future. This of course brings us back to the question: who are we arming? According to numerous accounts, the most organized and effective faction of the Syrian rebels is Jabhat al-Nusra -- a group with ties to al-Qaeda in Iraq. The U.S. State Department designated Jabhat al-Nusra as a terrorist organization in December 2012, and the UN just added the group to its sanctions blacklist.
Therefore, those states looking to arm the Syrian rebels have some issues to address:
-Providing arms to Jabhat al-Nusra would violate the UN sanctions.
-Providing arms to other Syrian groups would likely be less effective, not to mention the fact that the arms could well end up in the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra fighters. Indeed, reports indicate that entire units of Free Syria Army soldiers have defected to Jabhat al-Nusra.
-Providing arms could provoke an arms race between Western powers and Russia to equip their respective sides.
-Providing arms could be the first step in the road to direct military intervention.
An arms escalation could further derail peace talks. A U.S.-Russia conference planned for early June to discuss Syria, for example, will not be taking place in light of the recent arms developments. With a weapons influx seemingly imminent, peace in Syria appears as elusive as ever.
Previous posts on Syria:
Can't Trust Anyone (in Syria) (May 19, 2013)
To Do What Feels Necessary (May 4, 2013)
The Chorus Grows Louder: Syria & WMD (April 28, 2013)
Raise Your Hand if You Saw Chemical Weapons (March 21, 2013)
Israel Bombs Syria, Everyone Stays Quiet (January 31, 2013)
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