Reports surfaced today of an apparent Israeli aerial incursion into Syria, destroying a convoy near Damascus. Other reports indicate a research facility of some sort (biochemical weapons is assumed) was attacked. Syria denies that the Israelis attacked a convoy headed for Lebanon and presumably Hizbullah.
Naturally, the Israelis are quiet. Surprisingly, so is most everyone else. (The US did confirm it was an Israeli strike)
Israel has been wary of the civil war in Syria for quite some time. That uneasiness has only increased as Assad's power wanes and the situation becomes ever more desperate. Many analysts worry that this strike only raises the instability in the region. Apart from all out regional war, how much more unstable the Middle East can get is really questionable.
With Syria continuing to supply weapons to Hizbullah, the Israelis are concerned that those weapons may begin to include biological and chemical agents. However, with Syrian forces engaged all across its own territory, the likelihood of counterattack in response to a strike is limited. The press release from Syria disguised as a news article may be the most that can be spared. Therefore, the logic behind this military action can be seen clearly.
Apart from these facts, it seems more likely for Assad to take any possible weapons with him in retreat to the Alawite territory than to give it to Hizbullah. Selling the excess of what cannot be brought, however, may be a possibility, but it is unlikely that Assad has reached that stage yet. Instead, any possibility that it had, or the option to eliminate a weapons delivery of any sort, with minimal repercussions, was taken.
The most interesting non-news piece of this entire incident is how quiet everyone is. Russia called the action "unacceptable," but is also "clarifying" the incident. Little to no information from other countries can be found. It seems that Syria really has no friends left these days. Perhaps it is time for Assad to make for that exit, or retreat, whatever the wish is.
The interesting dilemma is how to have a dictator like Assad step down -- after all he has done, can one in good conscience accept some sort of exile/amnesty deal for Assad and his top lieutenants? On the one hand, such a move would be a blow to the rule of law. If people committing serious war crimes and crimes against humanity are not held accountable, is there really any deterrence to be had? On the other hand, if such an exile would hasten the end of those atrocities and the civil war, who's to say the global community should not grudgingly accept such a plan? The desire for justice for past lives lost is weighed against the desire to protect the persons whose lives remain at risk -- would those people rather die for the sake of justice for the already-deceased or live while Assad retires into exile? There is unfortunately no easy answer, and as the options are weighed, Syrians continue to suffer.
ReplyDelete