Unthinkable? No. Unprecedented? No. Ignored. Yes. - Syria Today

The disaster that is Syria continues to unfold and capture the world's attention. The United States, led by President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, have begun to use some of the harshest rhetoric of late in describing the calamity there in a bid to garner political support for military action against Syria. The trigger, late in coming, is the all-but certain use of chemical weapons. It is questionable whether the trigger may be too late.

Before touting the latest news, it is important to recognize that this chemical attack would be only the latest atrocity in a civil war that has dragged on and has been ignored. The Economist wrote an excellent piece on the disintegration of Syria as a nation-state and its impact on regional and international affairs back in February of 2013. For a conflict that has already lasted years, the question that certainly arises is: why now? what makes this so different?

Is this the unthinkable? No - there were chemical weapons atrocities throughout the twentieth century, and even during the Syrian Civil War reports as far back as early this year suggested chemical weapons use. In fact, a response in Syria would be the first of its kind, following the Chemical Weapons Convention (of which Syria is not a signatory).This latest attack was simply too public and too brazen to ignore is the line of thinking.

Is the scale of Syria Civil War unprecedented? This is certainly arguable. This is Homs this year:

                                          (Source: Daily Mail)

Meanwhile, this is Hama in 1982:

                                          (Source: Wikipedia)

Recent United Nations reports also point to an approximate two million refugees and massive camps in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. An addition four million are internally displaced, though this gets much less news much like internally displaced persons get much fewer rights than refugees. While the scale in terms of the total population is much higher, the overall scale is not much different from the Democratic Republic of Congo civil war. This is an all-out war. Whoever wins, it will take decades to rebuild Syria.

What has happened, and what often happens in these situations, is that the entire conflict has largely been ignored from the foreign policy of Western nations. Countries and international institutions have noted their opinions, counted the dead, but not acted. The reality is that no one wants to repeat Iraq or Afghanistan. In fact, the US has likely eliminated any considerations of infantry use for the foreseeable future. It is unsurprising that a significant part of the US plan involves improving the Syrian resistance. In itself, this is problematic, with portions of the Syrian resistance being directly affiliates with al Qaeda. Meanwhile, Pentagon estimates suggest it would take 75,000 troops to control the ground in Syria.

None of this paints a pretty picture (nor is it meant to). Is action in Syria needed? Probably. Would it have been more useful months and months ago? Probably. The question now is most certainly - what kind of response will occur. Will it drive Assad out of power, or will it simply lead to a repeat of the two Gulf Wars?


Previous Illexum Posts on Syria:

• UN good at counting; everything else - not so much (June 13, 2013)
• Foreign Arms in Syria (June 2, 2013)
• Can't Trust Anyone (in Syria) (May 19, 2013)
• The Chorus Grows Louder: Syria & WMD (April 28, 2013)
• Raise Your Hand if You Saw Chemical Weapons (March 21, 2013)
• Annan Resigns, Endgame Approaches? (August 2, 2012)

Unreliable Energy Focus: Liquefied Natural Gas & International Gas Markets

The first energy shock of the 21st century has most certainly been the Phoenix-like revitalization of United States energy production. An expected decline has morphed into an increase in production, turning the energy world on its heels. Previously, it was expected that the United States would not only continue to be dependent on foreign energy imports, but that those imports would increasingly dominate the economy and, to an extent, foreign policy. In fact, the turnaround has shown the United States is moving toward energy independence. Energy independence would allow one of the world's most powerful nations to operate with limited influence on foreign policy from countries who have hitherto sold it its energy.

More so, it may even allow it to undermine the resource-based economies of those nations. An aftershock is most certainly coming: liquefied natural gas (LNG). Unlike oil, which can be stored in barrels, put on vessels, and transported around the world easily, natural gas is not so portable. Natural gas pipelines are costly to maintain and can only traverse the land so far. Once the land ends, pipelines become even more difficult to develop and maintain. These limits to natural gas portability lead to closed markets and differences in gas prices around the world.

So far, most cost-effective method of transporting natural gas involves transforming it into a liquid, transporting it, and then regasifying it. In a nutshell, this is the LNG process. There are a limited number of LNG liquefaction and gasification plants in the world right now. However, an increasing number are being planned and built. In a sense, the glut in the market that is in the United States right now, has the very potential to undermine prices and energy market structures around the world. With a freer market, resource-intensive economies reliant on high-priced earth-based exports will have their influence on the foreign policy of other nations severely diminished.

Coup? What's a Coup?

...our month-long summer hibernation is over...

Coup: a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government (Oxford Dictionary)

Coup: a change in government that is not in the nation's interest, when we decide that it's not, and not any sooner (United States government definition)

There is, of course, a formal definition likely somewhere buried in the government's glossary, but it's not quite relevant. It is clear in everyone's eyes that Egypt's change in government was a coup, whether or not the United States supported the change.

Since the overthrow, the United States has been on the "what do we do!?!" fence for what has seemed like an eternity. Formally labeling the change in government a coup leads to all sorts of ramifications, domestically and abroad. Namely, the US aid agreement with Egypt would likely be invalidated by the coup definition. This could complicate matters with the silent, but reciprocal aid given to Israel to avoid a perception of favoritism in the Middle East. Save for Afghanistan, Egypt and Israel are at the top of the list for United States military aid, and largely have been so since their 1979 peace treaty. At home, the government could be on the hook for the contracts that would terminate as a result of halting aid to Egypt - and the price is not cheap.

Quietly, over the past week, reports have leaked that aid to Egypt is not only under review, but may have already been suspended. Of course, this could be a technicality with a time lag - purchases already made for the fiscal year could be in the past and the looming cut so far in the future that it is still under discussion. Other funding tranches may simply not yet be due. Nonetheless, the positive side is sending a signal. The mess needs to be cleaned up and in an orderly fashion - not with civilians bleeding in the streets. Egypt may turn out, after all, to be a comparison against the change in regime in Iraq. What path is the one that leads toward a better future? Only time will tell.

News Roundup

...for those times when even a blog post can't be written...

• Cuba attempts to ship arms to North Korea, denies violating any international agreements: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/17/cuba-arms-north-korea-ship

• Barclays channels its inner Enron, is fined by US after attempting to manipulate energy markets: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jul/17/us-energy-regulator-barclays-fine

• US and Russia agree that violence in Syria must end, arm opposing sides: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-russia-simultaneously-announce-intent-145729405.html

Egypt Mini-Update: Tacit US Support

It's no question that the United States was never a huge fan of Mohammed Morsi and his relationship to the Muslim Brotherhood. There was always an underlying fear within government policy circles and analysts alike that Morsi's rule was not aboveboard and was growing less and less democratic, both in the way it was conducted and the way it was founded. In a sense, it was felt that Morsi was given a chance, and then blew it.

It is surprising, however, that the United States may have bankrolled some anti-government organizations in Egypt. It almost seems as if the US is funding revolution by trial and error. However, it's important to note that this investigation has been sharply criticized. The channels of US funding have nearly always been a mystery.

More telling is the story of the F-16s. In 2012, the US agreed on donating F-16s to Egypt as part of an aid package. That's right - not a typo - donating and aid package and F-16s. Some in Congress sought to derail the delivery, but that attempt failed. And now, the US is ready to deliver the first of these fighter jets, amid a military coup, growing unrest, and another revolution. What could be more timely?

Egypt: Of Protests and Ultimatums

Slightly over a year ago, Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi won Egypt's first post-revolution presidential election.  Almost 11 months ago, Morsi consolidated power with a power move that questioned whether his nascent rule would last.  5 months ago, regime opponents marched in the streets to express disappointment with Morsi's rule to date.

This past Sunday, protesters took to the streets once more to call for Morsi's resignation.  Seven individuals died protest-related clashes and violence, while scores more were wounded.  The Egyptian military then upped the ante yesterday by issuing Morsi a 48-hour ultimatum to get the situation under control; Morsi has thus far refused the military's demands.  An excellent take on the entire situation, from the streets of Cairo, can be found here.

Put succinctly, nobody is quite sure what Egypt will look like by the end of this week.  Whatever emerges out of Egypt, however, one thing is near-certain: this will be the year of missed opportunities and regrets, on all sides.  Morsi, for example, issued an edict in November 2012, shielding his decisions from court review until the passage of a new constitution -- a move many perceived as illegitimate and power-grabbing.  The opposition, in turn, walked out of the constitution-drafting assembly, only to next complain about the lack of their inclusion.  Soon thereafter, the opposition showed staggering ineptitude and indecisiveness, waiting until the week before the constitutional referendum to decide whether it would even participate in the referendum. The military has largely stayed on the sidelines -- that is, of course, until yesterday's ultimatum.  From Morsi's inability to grasp the scope of the populace's discontent to the opposition's ineffectual attempts at political process in general, the common thread throughout Egypt is misunderstanding and miscommunication.  One can only hope that these are growing pains, rather than a hint of descent into turmoil.

Recommended Reading: Airline Hijackings

Just came across this article (which is really an exerpt from a book) and wanted to share: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/06/love-and-terror-in-the-golden-age-of-hijacking.

The article (and book) goes into detail about how the US worked to stem the wave of hijackings in the late 1960's and early 1970's. A fairly interesting read about how one problem was addressed in the beginning.