Even in a short U.N. press release such as this, there are numerous questions about how to gauge success in Afghanistan or success of counter-terrorism in general. Civilian casualties caused by international and pro-government forces were down 25%, and those forces were responsible for only 10% of all civilian casualties. Anti-government forces, meanwhile, were responsible for 80% of civilian casualties, and their assassinations of pro-government officials, use of IEDs, and attacks on schools, were all on the rise. Overall, civilian casualties were down 15%.
From that data, one could point to numerous successes, including the improved efforts of pro-government forces to minimize civilian casualties. On the other hand, protecting civilians from Taliban and other insurgent attacks -- though extremely difficult -- is a necessary component of any successful counter-terrorist effort. If a government cannot keep its citizens safe, then those citizens will continue to lack faith in that government. The Taliban is likely too embedded into Afghan society to ever be eradicated by military means alone; rather, any lasting peace in the region will almost undoubtedly involve bringing the Taliban to the table. Until then, the war will continue to wind down to a bloody end, if indeed an end is in sight.
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