Europe's Greek Tragedy?

As Greece heads towards elections on June 17, the drama is unfolding not unlike one of its ancient tragedies. While Europe is enveloped in the melodrama of successively failing Greek governments and the potential for Greece's exit from the Eurozone (even becoming termed the "Grexit" as I've learned from The Economist), the rest of the world is watching cautiously.

The question on every European politican's mind is whether an exit by Greece, a seriously indebted outlier, could trigger the collapse of the Eurozone altogether and the death knell of an integrated Europe. Greece is followed, in no short order, by Portugal and Ireland, with Italy and Spain not lagging far behind. Further concern over France and the Netherlands continues to grow daily. It is perhaps Germany who seems the strongest, but 40% of its exports are to the Eurozone. If a domino effect were to occur, Europe would be shorn apart.

At least until mid-June, it seems that the threat is grave, but overstated. The "contagion" problem, and the ramifications of the collapse of the Euro are so great, that it is unlikely that Europe's stronger economies, namely Germany, would allow a weak economy to so significantly affect them. Protection against the sovereign risk of a Greek default or a Greek exit is minimal, with the default being more likely and easier to work through (though not easy in any means). In essence, Europe's strong would need to convince investors, the people, and other nations that a Greek exit would have little to no effect on the Euro. All in all, that is highly unlikely to occur, and even less so in the course of a single month.

Therefore, if Greece were to stay, it would need to be controlled. In order for it to be controlled, a more unified Eurozone fiscal and budgetary policy would need to be implemented. So although we see a Europe today in crisis, is it really in any more crisis than when Ireland rejected the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 or when the European Union enlarged in 2004 and 2007? Recall that the Lisbon Treaty was ratified in time and European expansion has slowed, but never fully stopped (Croatia looks to be next to join). This is the dichotomous story of Europe since World War II - always either about to collapse into itself or integrate further. The value of integration has been well illustrated over the decades, and the value of collapse well understood by two major wars and some smaller, but still noteworthy conflicts. The question really remains: do today's politicians, and today's citizens for that matter, remember what happened when Europe collapses? If they don't, or if they choose to ignore it, the tragedy they're watching may simply be a story within a story, with the themselves as the main characters failing to see the relationship to their own situation.