Ramzan Kadyrov, Russia's hand-picked President of Chechnya, posted on his Instagram account last week that Doku Umarov had been killed by Russian special forces. Umarov, also known as Russia's "Osama bin Laden" led insurgents in the Caucasus region who had carried out attacks throughout Russia, including in Moscow. Apart from making the claim, Kadyrov offered no evidence to support his statement, fueling speculation. In the past, there have been premature reports of Umarov's death; however, there is growing confirmation amongst others in the region (on both sides) that this time it is real. Umarov had called for attacks on the 2014 Winter Olympics in the nearby Russian city of Sochi, scheduled to begin in February. The games will be the first held in Russia since the Soviet Union staged the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow.
Umarov's death will require insurgents in the region to look for new leadership, though whether it will impact Sochi remains unclear. While there is certainly evidence to support that eliminating the leadership of a terrorist group limits that group's impact, the short-run longitudinal effect is questionable. Kadyrov states that the threat to Sochi is now 'groundless', but security experts are certainly concerned by at least one 'Black Widow' suspect, if not more. Russia has a mixed history with 'Black Widow' terrorists, particularly suicide bombers emanating from the turbulent Caucasus region. Today, Russia is anxious to host an Olympics without incident (the 1980 games were boycotted by the United States) and revive its international presence, but with the games being compared to a military base, any attack will be railed as a failure on Russia's part.
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If you enjoyed that Instagram led the news, you can take a look at Kadyrov's account, or review Foreign Policy's 11 favorite Kadyrov posts. Here's an example:
(Source: Instagram, via Foreign Policy)
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