Sochi's Inevitable Conversation: Security

As each successive Olympic games approach, several threads dominate the conversation, and they largely stray from the athletics. The first is the overall cost of the games (as well as whether the return on that investment brings equal benefit to the host city and country). The second is the security of the games, and how much that security costs. This second conversation has seemingly been driving the first one over the last several Olympics.

Security has particularly been a sore point in recent games. The cost of security has been around or over $1 billion in Beijing in 2008, Vancouver in 2010, and London in 2012. Vancouver had initially budgeted under $200 million for the Olympics, while London budgeted around $500 million. None of those estimates were met and were in fact shattered when final tallies came in. In London, even with the massive security budget, actual security was inadequate, requiring the government to use military support. At over $50 billion, the Socihi Olympic games are projected to be the most expensive ever.. That figure may come with an asterisk though as up to $30 billion of that may have been stolen and diverted. Nonetheless, security can be expected to be a significant chunk of that budget, and that may not even include military operations meant to support the Sochi Olympics. Brazil is already working with Interpol to reinforce security for the 2016 Olympic games.

Sochi is an even more precarious position than previous hosts. Though the terrain is mountainous and challenging, Russia's most violent and unstable region is less than 400 miles away. Nonetheless, terrorist groups from Russia's Caucasus have struck across Russia in the past. Recent operations in the region are not winning any points with its oppressed populations. Russia has been waging a war in the region since the 1990's and it could be debated even earlier.

A recent suicide bombing of a bus in Volgograd illustrated that regional terrorists can strike well outside their home area of operations. Sochi, though it may feel a world way is very accessible. A new generation of suicide bombers, who, unlike previous Black Widows, lack the typical markings of loss and personal grievance, can be an even larger headache to identify for Russian authorities. It could just turn up that the connections of this particular suicide bomber have simply not yet been identified or are not as direct as in the past.

It seems that Russia recognizes the concern and the international stage. Planned security is extensive and makes any successful attack unlikely. There is little doubt though, that threats to Sochi are real. Will Russia thwart them? Will the anti-terrorism operations be successful? Most importantly, will Russia keep it all out of the public eye and leave the focus to its transformation of Sochi? Sochi is the culmination of Russia's about-face to the world. Failure is not an option.