Sunday, October 28, 2012

Burma takes a leap backward, anyone apart from Human Rights Watch listening?

After damning evidence from Human Rights Watch (following numerous reports), Burma admitted massive security failures in clashes in largely Muslim Rakhine. This event presents a massive leap backward for Burma. First, it indicates that violence in Burma continues. Second, it shows that the government will still suppress news and information when it is possible. There is a glimmer of hope in that the government did admit violence and its response; however, this admission only came after overwhelming evidence surfaced.

The United States and other Western countries that have extended an open hand to Burma should rightly ask the government whether it truly is moving forward, albeit without pushing the Burmese into China's grasp. Naturally, these questions and issues are extremely sensitive. The plight of this minority group should not be overshadowed by the potential opening up of Burma. Rewarding behavior that is just slightly less bad than it was previously has never previously led to good behavior. It only tests the waters of how one can maximize benefit while minimizing costs - something that cannot be afforded in Burma.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Counterterrorism: How to Gather Intel and Where to Send It

A couple of weeks ago, as detailed by Danger Room's Spencer Ackerman, a Senate report found that the post-9/11 "fusion centers" of the Department of Homeland Security are particularly inept when it comes to uncovering and thwarting terroristic threats.  It's telling, but unsurprising, that the FBI has been much more effective in uncovering and responding to such threats.

To understand why the FBI is often on the front lines of investigating and combating terrorism, one need look no further than Garrett Graff's The Threat Matrix: The FBI at War in the Age of Global Terror.  The Threat Matrix explores the FBI's long history of addressing terrorism, be it hijackings in the 1970s or the Islamic terrorism of the 1990s that ultimately culminated in 9/11.

So, if you want to effectively conduct counterterrorism investigations, and coordinate efforts across different geographical areas and different social strata, what do you do?  Well, the FBI and NYPD came up with a plan in 1980 that led to a long-standing model: the Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF).  There are now over 100 JTTF's throughout the country, but the original task force created in New York remains vital: just today, news came out that the New York JTTF, after a months-long investigation, arrested a man for attempting to bomb the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

Another shortcoming of fusion centers: global reach.  Sure, in theory, these fusion centers answer to the broader DHS hierarchy, which in turn could have the resources to properly analyze information.  On the other hand, DHS has tended to be a bureaucratic monolith, devouring resources without a clear concept of how it fits into the broader intelligence community structure.  If we intend to have a clear policy with respect to gathering and analyzing domestic intelligence, our options seem to be: fusion centers; FBI cooperation with local law enforcement; or a "throw everything against the wall to see what sticks" approach.  FBI cooperation with law enforcement seems to have advantages over the other options, not merely with respect to efficiency/reducing redundancies.  The FBI has global reach and global clout, the result of decades of forging strong professional relationships and personal friendships with police and military forces worldwide.  The FBI was already increasing its global presence before 9/11, and since then, has only increased its worldwide outposts and its efforts to have a presence in more countries.  That combination of domestic and international involvement is essential when you're addressing a threat as amorphous and elusive as international terrorism.  It's imperative that the United States decide how it wants to address intelligence-gathering and intelligence analysis - only by using the right tools will we be properly equipped to uncover terror plots and properly address them.