The ouster of Egypt's Mohammed Morsi by military coup (or military action in support of popular democratic demand....) has led to an interesting and possibly volatile development in Gaza.
For the past six years, the Egypt-Gaza border crossing has ebbed and flowed from the border crossing blockade under Mubarak to a slightly freer flow of people under the interim military government and Morsi. Even during Morsi's short-lived rule, however, the border crossing was limited. For example, the Morsi government limited the border crossing to humanitarian efforts.
While the official border crossing has remained highly restrictive, the unofficial border crossing has thrived. Specifically, a complex network of hundreds of tunnels connect Gaza to Egypt; these tunnels are the lifeblood of the Hamas-controlled territory's economy. For example, fuel and building supplies (primarily steel, cement, and gravel) flow into Gaza through the tunnels. Basic goods, such as flour, sugar, rice, and fish also enter Gaza primarily through the tunnels. Of course, the human travel through the tunnels is also a simple way to skirt official attention. Finally, of course, weapons flow through the tunnels.
Of course, all this has changed with Morsi's ouster (although, even during Morsi's rule, in February 2013 the military flooded numerous tunnels as a likely response to the use of those tunnels by militants fighting Egyptian forces in the Sinai). First, the Egyptian military cracked down on tunnel traffic. Now, by way of demolition and the potential establishment of a "buffer zone" no-man's land, Egypt may be closing off access to the tunnels for good. While the weapons help support Hamas rule, it may in fact be the economic effects of the tunnels' closure that hurts Hamas the most. Hamas taxes the goods flowing through the tunnels; these revenues constitute an estimated 40% of all government revenue and allow Hamas to keep 45,000 civil servants on the payroll. The loss of these vital taxes could thus impede the ability of Hamas to secure support through the age-old political tactic: patronage.
Furthermore, the fuel and goods shortages have led to price spikes -- spikes that were, in fact, documented late in the Morsi regime, as that regime began the crackdown that has intensified in the wake of Morsi's ouster. Whether the twofold revenue loss and price spikes will erode support for Hamas in Gaza, only time will tell.
Pictures from inside the tunnels:
http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1931308_1969736,00.html
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/01/pics-inside-the-2/
Showing posts with label Sinai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sinai. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Gaza: An Opportunity for Israeli-Egyptian Cooperation?
The truth is that neither Egypt nor Israel is particularly pleased with the long-term development of Gaza since Israeli disengagement and less so since Hamas took control. Hamas' access to third-party support, financial and otherwise, outside of its neighbors, largely from Iran, gives it significant leverage to develop activities aimed at destabilizing both. With little to no aboveboard economic activity, Gaza's legitimate ties to its neighbors are nothing more than lines in the sand.
Last week, a brazen attack by militants left 16 Egyptian soldiers dead near the border crossing with Rafah. The goal, seemingly to create security problems for both neighbors, is worrisome. While the attack was into Egypt, one vehicle was reportedly driven into Israel for nearly a mile before being destroyed. Egypt has since arrested several suspects, but it's not clear whether this will truly mitigate a growing problem of lawlessness in Sinai, promoted by Hamas and its supporters (even regional news outlets largely share this view). Nonetheless, the Rafah crossing is under constant attack, putting Egypt on the defensive. The border is not the only issue - the problem stems far into Sinai, as evidenced most recently by the attack on peacekeeping forces at its heart. Since Hamas controls the arms, as well as the smuggling tunnels, in Gaza, is there anyone else to blame for the "militant" attacks?
While it is easy to look at the glass half-empty - another security problem in the Middle East threatening to destabilize the region - it can also be seen half-full - an opportunity for two "new" partners (considering Egypt's recent political transition) to cooperate to secure their shared interests. Egypt and Israel have, in the past, cooperated on improving the Rafah crossing in order to benefit legitimate crossing and to mitigate militant operations. Perhaps it will be clearer now that increased cooperation is needed, to secure the border above the sand, destroy the tunnels beneath it, and even to reassert Egypt's presence in Sinai outside of its periphery.
Last week, a brazen attack by militants left 16 Egyptian soldiers dead near the border crossing with Rafah. The goal, seemingly to create security problems for both neighbors, is worrisome. While the attack was into Egypt, one vehicle was reportedly driven into Israel for nearly a mile before being destroyed. Egypt has since arrested several suspects, but it's not clear whether this will truly mitigate a growing problem of lawlessness in Sinai, promoted by Hamas and its supporters (even regional news outlets largely share this view). Nonetheless, the Rafah crossing is under constant attack, putting Egypt on the defensive. The border is not the only issue - the problem stems far into Sinai, as evidenced most recently by the attack on peacekeeping forces at its heart. Since Hamas controls the arms, as well as the smuggling tunnels, in Gaza, is there anyone else to blame for the "militant" attacks?
While it is easy to look at the glass half-empty - another security problem in the Middle East threatening to destabilize the region - it can also be seen half-full - an opportunity for two "new" partners (considering Egypt's recent political transition) to cooperate to secure their shared interests. Egypt and Israel have, in the past, cooperated on improving the Rafah crossing in order to benefit legitimate crossing and to mitigate militant operations. Perhaps it will be clearer now that increased cooperation is needed, to secure the border above the sand, destroy the tunnels beneath it, and even to reassert Egypt's presence in Sinai outside of its periphery.
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