Revolutions, in all their forms, rarely setup a country to be exactly what the revolutionaries wanted it to be. Take for example how Iran emerged out of its 1979 revolution (theocratic), or how Russia has developed following the "transfer of power" from Vladimir Putin to Dmitry Medvedev (dictatorial). Egypt is no outlier to the post-revolutionary balancing act wherein a country seeks to redefine itself on the international stage and appease the populace who clamored for revolution.
In the West, it is therefore troubling that one of the first trips by Egypt's new President, Mohammed Morsi, is to China and Iran. In China, Morsi will focus on business and development. These are important objectives: China is sought after as an alternative to Western influence throughout the world and Egypt is in dire need of an economic kindling in order to validate the revolution. In Iran, he will attend the meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement. Morsi will not visit the United States until the upcoming United Nations meeting.
This trip scheduling may be just logistics, but it will also be seen as a poor choice in the West (Thomas Friedman in particular doesn't like it). The United States is one of the largest aid donors to Egypt and no friend of Tehran's. At the same time, relations with China remain cool, and could head for a downturn if an incoming American president labels China a currency manipulator. Therefore it is troubling that Morsi chose to visit Tehran in person - which no Egyptian president has done since its 1979 treaty with Israel - rather than send a deputy or via alternative diplomatic means.
Morsi is clearly attempting to solidify a position as a moderate. The question everyone wants to know the answer to is: Is he one? At the same time as his trip abroad began, Morsi, albeit in somewhat vague terms, reaffirmed Egypt's position to the treaty with Israel as well as its terms regarding the Egyptian military's presence in the Sinai. One thing to remember is that eventually, everyone is aligned (even if you are aligned with the non-aligned) and the grass isn't always greener on that other side. It might behoove Mr. Morsi to consider not only where a significant amount of Egyptian aid comes from, but also which countries may most benefit the business, development, and political prospects of Egypt for years to come.
Mr. Morsi appears to be doing his best effort to thread the proverbial foreign policy needle. While he did indeed visit Iran, he managed to rankle his hosts as well as their Syrian allies when he expressed support for the Syrian rebels. This is reasonable, given his hope to build and alliance with (and exercise some sort of influence in) a post-Assad Syria.
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, Mr. Morsi is navigating the uncharted territory of a post-Mubarak, democratically-elected Egypt. Between his outspokenness in Tehran and his earlier power play to diffuse a political-military showdown in Egypt, he's proving himself to be more pragmatic and less ideologue-driven than many expected. Whether he ultimately chooses to accede to the more extremist parts of the Muslim Brotherhood or tries to forge a new path as a moderate building a large umbrella-type coalition remains to be seen. Either way, as long as he maintains peace with Israel, I think many Americans will choose to see him as a quasi-ally worth dealing with. It might not be a secular Western-style democracy, but if every country were just like us, diplomacy would be easy. The true test of diplomacy is how well you can forge common interests and promote your ideals without necessarily imposing them.