Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Frozen (in Ukraine)

This has nothing to do with the Disney movie and everything to do with "frozen conflicts," seemingly interminable wars that change little year to year. Russia is a master of establishing them, limiting the countries in its former sphere of influence from progressing or developing without Russia having a significant role.

Russia is succeeding in establishing a new frozen front in Ukraine, complete with a cease-fire that is lightly observed and battlefield lines that spell disaster for years to come. A loss of international focus on the conditions in eastern Ukraine have allowed Russia to control more of the conflict's outcome as well as its narrative. The truce barely exists in name along anymore.

Thinking long-term, ignoring the situation in Ukraine will feel like a mistake. It will serve to embolden governments that trample international norms and human rights. It will limit the progress of democratic movements where they are needed most, in the confines of nations struggling to transform from tyranny and kelptocracy to semblances of democracy.