Is Hugo Chavez alive? is a question that is likely going to gain popularity over the coming months. Apart from obscure family photos the other day, the Venezuelan president has not been seen since going to Cuba for treatment on his recurring cancer.
The latest news from the Venezuelan front is that Chavez has instructed diplomats to improve relations with the United States. This move could reflect the inner strains of Venezuela's other foreign partners. Chavez has consistently courted American adversaries, including Syria and Iran. Syria has been embroiled in civil war for two years. Iran has elections looming and its economy has been all-but shuttered by sanctions. Venezuela still does have ties with China, but China's economy has slowed and its potential clash in the South China Sea would not necessarily benefit Venezuela. The US meanwhile continues to buy oil from Venezuela, though lessening US reliance on oil could hamper not only the country, but the significant benefit that high oil prices have brought it. Sending oil to China is more complex and costly than to the US.
This could certainly be an opportunity to mend relations between the two countries. More importantly, it could be an avenue through which to build post-Chavez ties. Who knows how much longer he will hold on to power, or be around, for that matter.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Egypt: On Elections and Protests
The past week and a half saw great unrest in Egypt as dozens were killed in protests, riots, and clashes with security forces. Yesterday, the Egyptian PM's car was, according to state TV, pelted with stones by protesters in Tahir Square.
Over the past two years, protests in Egypt seem to be as much the rule as the exception. Furthermore, protests appear to enjoy more organization than, say, pre-election planning. One glaring example is this past December's two-step constitutional referendum, passed by a stark 64%-36% margin. The opposition, which appears to have no trouble galvanizing itself for protests, suffered from a crippling lack of coherence and organization in the weeks and months leading up to the referendum. For example, with less than a week before the referendum, Egypt's opposition parties had not decided whether to boycott or vote no. They ultimately decided to participate in the referendum, but it should not come as a surprise that their efforts fell short. In fact, turnout was low for the referendum overall -- an estimated 32.9% turnout. Critics and opposition leaders criticized the process, complaining both about a sense of exclusion from the drafting process and vague wording of the text itself. As the opposition, however, it is your duty to both organize your supporters and offer an alternate vision for your country. The opposition in Egypt has made its disappointment over Morsi's rule extremely vocal, in the form of protests. As part of the long road to stable democracy, however, the opposition must become more involved in the less flashy forms of government -- namely, elections (and all the attendant groundwork involved in them) and specific governance and policy issues. Until it does so, Egypt will continue to muddle through the aftermath of its revolution, its future lurching from one extreme to another.
Over the past two years, protests in Egypt seem to be as much the rule as the exception. Furthermore, protests appear to enjoy more organization than, say, pre-election planning. One glaring example is this past December's two-step constitutional referendum, passed by a stark 64%-36% margin. The opposition, which appears to have no trouble galvanizing itself for protests, suffered from a crippling lack of coherence and organization in the weeks and months leading up to the referendum. For example, with less than a week before the referendum, Egypt's opposition parties had not decided whether to boycott or vote no. They ultimately decided to participate in the referendum, but it should not come as a surprise that their efforts fell short. In fact, turnout was low for the referendum overall -- an estimated 32.9% turnout. Critics and opposition leaders criticized the process, complaining both about a sense of exclusion from the drafting process and vague wording of the text itself. As the opposition, however, it is your duty to both organize your supporters and offer an alternate vision for your country. The opposition in Egypt has made its disappointment over Morsi's rule extremely vocal, in the form of protests. As part of the long road to stable democracy, however, the opposition must become more involved in the less flashy forms of government -- namely, elections (and all the attendant groundwork involved in them) and specific governance and policy issues. Until it does so, Egypt will continue to muddle through the aftermath of its revolution, its future lurching from one extreme to another.
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